Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

661
FXUS62 KGSP 080007
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
807 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect dry and cooler conditions from tonight through midweek.
Another cold front approaches Thursday and Thursday night bringing
more showers continuing into Friday. Dry weather returns for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 6:05 PM EDT Monday: We`ve still got a broad area of light to heavy
showers making their way over the eastern 3/4 of our fcst area early this
evening. We`ve also seen a handful of embedded lightning strikes within
some of the heavier precip areas, but little wrt more discrete cells de-
veloping.

Otherwise, a slowly evolving synoptic pattern continues to creep along
this evening with a positively tilted upper trof extending from the Lower
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the sfc, a cold front is
draped across east Tennessee near the North Carolina state line. Ahead
of the front, a moisture rich warm sector is entrenched across much of
the area as a plume of deep moisture emanating from the Gulf translates
across the region. A lead band of showers and embedded thunderstorms has
largely pushed east of our area. Additional showers have blossomed up-
stream across eastern Alabama into northern Georgia. These showers will
continue to move over our area this evening. Additional rainfall totals
will be on the light side and generally less than 0.25". Non-zero sfc-
based instability has built back in and may allow for pockets of higher
rainfall rates and perhaps a few lightning strikes, however additional
flooding and/or severe weather is not expected. Tonight, the frontal
boundary will finally push across the area with cold and dry advection
in its wake. This will bring an end to any lingering showers with notably
cooler morning lows in the 30s over the mtns and mostly 40s across the
lower terrain. Tomorrow will be nice but much cooler, with mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 216 PM EDT Monday: By Tuesday evening, should be mostly clear
everywhere as high pressure settles into the area.  Winds will
die down as the core of postfrontal CAA translates east of the GSP
forecast area, and conditions will allow for excellent radiative
cooling Tuesday night...supporting lows in the 30s across the low
terrain Wednesday morning...enough to hoist a Freeze Watch across
the North Carolina Piedmont and Foothills.

On Wednesday, temperatures should climb into the 60s as the surface
high slides east and winds turn out of the NE.  Humidity may
drop to near-critical levels as deep mixing develops during the
afternoon...but with moist antecedent conditions, fire weather
isn`t expected to be a major issue.  Skies will remain clear much
of the day and into the overnight...but won`t get quite as cold
Wednesday night / Thursday morning, as the air mass will have
begun to modify by this point, and slightly better wind fields
will prevent the better radiative cooling needed for lows below
the low-40s or, at worst, upper 30s...while temperatures slowly
creep back toward normal on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday: No major changes to the extended forecast.
A potent one-two-punch of upper energy will arrive on Thursday,
as a z500 trough amplifies over the Ozarks and then digs into
the Southeast by Friday...followed by another in short order on
Friday night.  The first wave may bring a narrow band of moisture
to the NC-TN border, enough for some rain, but the wider rain
chances aren`t forecast til Friday, when moisture stirred up by
the second wave encounters enough forcing for weak cyclogenesis
over the Cumberland Plateau and a strengthening cold front west
of our area.  Token thunder chances have been included on Friday,
when ensembles depict appreciable sbCAPE developing across the
entire forecast area ahead of the approaching front.

The thinking thereafter remains that behind the front, temperatures
will drop significantly...with lows back in the low 40s or even
upper 30s over the weekend...and inching back toward normal Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect a few more hours of showers at KCLT
and KHKY and maybe another hour or 2 of precip at the KGSP, KGMU,
and KAND. Shortly thereafter, cigs should lift/sct to VFR with
VFR conditions expected for the rest of the taf period. The rain
has already ended at KAVL and they have been VFR for the past few
hrs. Winds should go north of west across the fcst area during the
first few hours of the taf period. As the main cold front moves
further east of the area, winds will keep veering to NWLY and
eventually more NLY by tomorrow afternoon. All of the terminals
could see some sporadic low-end gusts behind the cold front later
tonight, but they appear less likely at KCLT, KHKY, and KAND, so
I did not include them in the taf. At KAVL, winds will remain NWLY
and gusty thru the bulk of the taf period.

Outlook: VFR conditions should persist thru mid-week. Another low
pressure system may bring another round of showers and associated
restrictions late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for NCZ035>037-056-057-069-502-504-506.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/TW
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JPT