Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

950
FXUS62 KGSP 070737
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
337 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today,
some of which may be severe. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible again Sunday. Unsettled weather will stick around
through the middle of next week as a cold front stalls in/near the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM: Axis of a weak shortwave now in eastern KY/TN still
appears to have 400-600 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with invof the
TN/NC mountains, and radar coverage has increased near Knoxville
over the past couple of hours. Said instability does not look to
extend much past the NC line, so have retained chance to likely
PoP through daybreak along the border but near-zero PoPs for
the Piedmont. Cloud cover has become scattered in the CWA and
particularly where soils are wet from afternoon/evening rainfall,
some patchy fog may come and go early this morning. Some high
clouds will fill back in ahead of the shortwave and that probably
will preclude fog expanding or becoming dense.

Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected early in the daytime
hours. Westerly low-level flow may enhance warming slightly via
downsloping, such that max temps will rise a degree or two warmer
in parts of the Piedmont versus Friday. East of the mountains,
CAMs continue to develop only isolated to widely scattered
convection at/around peak heating, possibly with the atmosphere
remaining in an overturned state from Friday evening in some areas,
but more as a result of dry air above the PBL leading to enough
entrainment to weaken updrafts; the drier air may mix down and
lower dewpoints. Generally kept PoP only 20-30% for most of the
Piedmont this afternoon, although values are a bit higher in the
far NE CWA where instability is slightly stronger. 0-6km shear
of 30 to 40 kt with 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE, so where a storm does
manage to develop, damaging wind or marginally severe hail could
result. SPC Slight Risk for most of the area.

A second, better defined shortwave will move across TN and northern
MS/AL this afternoon. Models do agree fairly well on the timing
thereof. The wave will move along an east-west stationary boundary;
0-6 shear will increase to 50-60 kt as the wave passes. This
setup has potential to produce a strong MCS in the TN/MS/AL
region which will be carried into our CWA in the evening or early
overnight. The CAMs however have not come into any better agreement
on the development or placement of such a feature. Profiles moisten
in the evening making it plausible that a cold pool would kick off
viable updrafts in our area. MCS development could result in wind
impacts over a wide swath and per the placement of the boundary
and instability, an associated Enhanced Risk extends into part
of our GA counties. However, even if no MCS organizes, the best
overall chance for storms looks to be in the evening timeframe,
and a more isolated severe wind/hail threat will persist, handled
by the Slight Risk. confidence remains low enough that little
change has been made to PoPs east of the mountains, since they
already reflected such a trend. Multiple rounds of showers/storms
are possible near the TN border between evening and daybreak,
with northwest flow early Sunday morning supporting continued high
chance to likely PoP there. Lows tonight a few degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 247 AM Saturday: By the later half of the weekend, a deep
closed upper low is forecast to be dropping out of the Canadian
Prairies and into the Northern Plains and Midwest. Ahead of this
feature, a southern stream shortwave trough will be sliding across
the Gulf States and into the Southern Appalachians during the day on
Sunday. An attendant surface low will subsequently slide east
through the Ohio Valley with a cold front draped through Kentucky
into Tennessee. Given the synoptic pattern, it would appear probable
that at least scattered showers and thunderstorms would be possible
Sunday ahead of the approaching front within a warm and moist
airmass. However, some uncertainty regarding coverage lingers owing
to how convection evolves today. If the airmass is too worked over
from a robust MCS it may not fully recover on Sunday, thus limiting
overall coverage of any showers and storms. At least a couple widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms should be realized regardless.
The intensity of any convection will also be moderated by what
transpires today. Should recovery occur, modest instability would
support a couple strong updrafts, but notably weaker deep-layer
vertical wind shear will generally preclude any organized convection.

Heading into Monday, the previously mentioned cold front will push
into the area, although how far remains to be seen. The arrival of
drier air behind the front along with departure of the upper
shortwave will allow for a brief break from showers and storms
through much of the day. By Monday night, the deep closed low will
have slowly shifted into the Great Lakes region with the trough axis
extending down the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave perturbation
rounding the base of the mean trough will lift out of the Deep South
and into the Carolinas. This will allow for the stalled frontal
boundary to lift back north across the area long with an influx of
deeper moisture. The result will be a non diurnal uptick in coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Monday evening and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 301 AM Saturday: The synoptic pattern will begin to evolve as
we head into the middle of next week with the pesky closed low over
the Great Lakes opening as it lifts northeast into southeastern
Canada. The arrival of another cold front on Tuesday may once again
scour out moisture and shunt better diurnally driven precipitation
chances south and east of the area. Exact location of the front and
where it may stall will ultimately dictate where the greatest rain
chances will reside. An active pattern looks to make a return late
week as upper ridging builds off the southeast coast and sets up a
southwest flow regime from the Gulf States into the Southern
Appalachians. Resulting moisture return along with the potential for
several embedded perturbations will foster at least scattered
diurnal convection.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Round of late evening convection left
behind swaths of wet soils, while dewpoint depressions are
generally small. Now that debris clouds from said convection are
scattering, a few of the rain-soaked areas are reporting clouds at
LIFR level. Included TEMPO at KCLT and KAVL given these conditions
early in the period. Limiting factor for fog threat will be winds
picking up closer to daybreak and/or urban heat islands keeping some
mixing. SHRA or isolated TSRA may redevelop west of KAVL before
dawn but chance there too small to mention. Diurnal instability
will develop again today although dry air aloft initially looks to
limit SHRA/TSRA development. Chance during peak heating is too small
to mention. Approaching shortwave trough will potentially carry a
line of TSRA into the area during the evening, with best overall
chance for impacts now 23z or later; PROB30s have been shifted
into that period. Winds will be near due W (except NW at KAVL),
likely backed slightly WSW due to lee troughing during the aftn,
with gusts to near 20 kt in the early to mid aftn.

Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for
late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...Wimberley